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The past year ended with a grand software buying spree. Everyone seems to be buying someone and we’d expect this activity to carry right on into the New Year. In fact, this kind of buying activity often carries within itself a lot of incentives to continuing:
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IBM invited 46 analysts to its Boulder facility, where amid 505 acres of mile-high-plus Rocky Mountain splendor (and hundreds of prairie dogs), IBM has inaugurated its On-Demand Data Center service; it will be one of four in the U.S. (with others in Raleigh, St. Louis, and Southbury, CT) plus eight outside the U.S.
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If you've been holding your breath waiting for all the exciting innovations and technology you'll see in 2005.....don't. This year isn't going to be one of breakthroughs but more one of incremental advances, cleanup, and consolidation. We expect to see a continuation of mergers and acquisitions in both the hardware and software arenas. These won't be quite as surprising as IBM's sale of its PC division to Lenovo, but will be more of a jockeying for position and market advantage.
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With two shows so close together, we thought we would wait until we had attended both CES and LinuxWorld and had a chance to digest them before writing a recap. CES was massive and LinuxWorld was more like Linux Street.
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This past year has been a time of reorganization and consolidation. We've seen numerous companies acquired (a good briefing on this can be found on Amy Wohl's Opinions Newsletter), which was heartening considering how the year's economy started out. We have seen shifts in strategy to accommodate the marketplace. Some showed potential (e.g. Novell makes strong Linux move and acquires SuSE, some showed suicidal tendencies (SCO's lawsuits).
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I wasn't going to write a COMDEX follow up this year because, frankly, it was a bit depressing. The overall size of the show was about 1/3 of what it was 3 or 4 years ago, and attendance was down to about 65,000. That's a far cry from the touted 200,000+ of years past. I've attended COMDEX for 20 years and I've always gone to see what was new and exciting.
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It’s traditional for industry analysts to end the old year or start the new one with some predictions of what’s likely to lie ahead. It’s a tradition that’s too tempting to pass up. So here are some thoughts about 2003. Save them and you can check them out in a year and see how good our crystal ball might be.
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